Yes, here we go again, just like in July 2025, but worse and faster. Some of you may have heard on national news broadcasts on July 16-18, 2026, that we here in Kerrville, Texas, and the Hill Country area once again experienced massive thunder showers from south of Center Point, Texas, up to Ingram, Hunt, Mountain Home, to south of Harper, Texas, and once again we suffered cataclysmic rainstorms and thunderstorms throughout the wee-hours of July 16, almost a year to the date of the major flooding here that took 139 lives, 117 of them just in Kerr County including the young girls at Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas. So far this catastrophic flooding has taken 2 lives. What was this caused by? Was it the same weather event that happened July 4, 2026: a mesoscale convective vortex with enhanced tropical moisture? Yes, it was.

This highly unusual weather event only started last year, in 2025. In contrast, historically speaking, this sort of major flooding only happened rarely, on average about 20-40 years apart or more, if at all. Suddenly, it seems to be happening on a more regular basis. How can I say that? My Mom and her new second husband moved to Kerrville in 1997. I have been coming here to visit several times a year since then with my ex-wife and our two children. And of course, Mom and I would talk quite often on the phone when I was living up in Dallas, TX. That is practically 30-years for Mom and off-and-on for me. I am very, very familiar with the weather trends here in the Texas Hill Country. It was something my Mom’s generation often chatted about to people: how’s the weather(?), etc. They enjoyed talking about it frequently and Mom wouldn’t spare me the semi-trivial details. Therefore, I am practically a 3-decade encyclopedia of Kerrville weather trends since 1997. I also study historical data tables because just like the U.S. Stock Exchange, trends are significant for learning probabilities and possibilities… staying one-half step or a full step ahead of the game.

That said, Mom, her new second husband, and myself, knew what severe weather events can cause in Kerrville and the surrounding Hill Country. During those extreme storms Mom and Lloyd (husband) were sometimes locked in to their residential neighborhood sitting at the top of one of the highest hills in Kerr County, in Shalako Estates off Goat Creek Road or FM 1338. Goat Creek often flooded and was to high and powerful for them to exit the little spillway out of Shalako Estates.

Here is drone footage of the devastation at Buckhorn RV & Lake Resort close to us and caused by the early morning rise of surrounding creeks feeding into the Guadalupe River:

This same extreme creek-water rise to deadly rushing, powerful water carrying away even several (many?) White-tail Deer with it as well as cars, trucks, and RVs, all the way into the Guadalupe River is about 2.5-miles down FM 1338 and Goat Creek, south into the river. This low-ground toward the Guadalupe River runs under Junction Hwy or TX Hwy 27 only about 400-500 feet from our property. Here’s what it looked like at approximately 4:30am CST from a motorist on Junction Hwy/TX 27 right at the Mexican restaurant Taqueria Jalisco that has the bright neon sign at the entrance. Apologies if you are unable to view it; it was a private citizen on the spot atop his vehicle with his personal cell phone recording live:

https://www.facebook.com/reel/27426041987090417

Now, two years back-to-back (2025–2026) of extreme, deadly flooding in the Texas Hill Country and Kerr County isn’t quite a frequent trend, yet. We’ve had our share of severe deadly floods going back many decades. However, the difference of those in past compared to now are different, significantly different in the meteorological systems then and now. What has changed are the upward trending weather systems of mesoscale convective vortexes that simply sit or stall in this part of Central Texas dumping upward of 7-10 inches or more of heavy rain in a matter of one hour, or one-and-a-half hours. Historically in previous flooding years in Kerrville the cause was 3-7 days and nights of rainfall, much more time for residents to prepare, evacuate, and get to higher ground. In July 2025 and again this July 16, 2026 that was not the case. One is a fool if you only look with horse-blinders on and conclude, ‘It was a rare phenomena that randomly happens. A one- or two-off.’ No. These sort of extreme weather events are happening not only across the United States, but around the globe. The evidence is piling up and piling up fast!

According to the Hays Trinity Conservation District (HTCD) and the NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System at Drought.gov over the last two decades in Texas, Central Texas Hill Country specifically, this area has experienced increase “weather whiplashes,” defined by NOAA as severe, alternating swings between intense droughts and catastrophic “1,000-year” flash floods compounded by a steady, long-term rise in baseline temperatures. The HTCD further reports:

Key Climate Trends (2006-2026)

• Warming Temperatures: The Hill Country has seen its warmest summers and mildest winters on record, with average temperatures trending roughly 1.5 to 3 degrees warmer than mid-20^th century averages. [citation]
• Precipitation Volatility: Annual rainfall totals remain unreliable, but the intensity of rainfall events has increased. Federal precipitation models updated in recent years reflect a 30% to 40% increase in benchmark extreme rainfall estimates for the region just west of San Antonio. [citation]
• Weather Extremes: The region is frequently pinned between prolonged La Niña-induced droughts (most notably 2011–2015 and subsequent mid-2020s dry spells) and record-breaking floods, such as the catastrophic Guadalupe River floods. [citation]

Should any of my viewers or followers wish to examine the local Kerrville, Ingram, Hunt, Center Point, or historical metric weather data for a specific location you can go to these official databases: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information and NOAA Climate at a Glance.

If there is just one or two things that I have learned in my many years in Kerrville, Texas, going back to 1997–to the present, and learned from my late mother it is this: everything here in Kerrville, and the Texas Hill Country is much more extreme than it was on average back in the late 1990’s, the 2000’s and up to now. Temperatures are noticeably more extreme, the wind and wind gusts are definitely more extreme—my outdoor plants and herb garden bare witness to the destruction—reaching some days up to 30-40mph! This has increasingly reeked havoc on my allergies and sinus problems. 🤧🤨 Of course the extremes in rainfall, or no rainfall, for extended weeks or months are noticeably more unstable, the UV indices are noticeably way up with more frequent UV warnings for outdoor activities.

And as a herb grower and small gardener what I’ve noticed every summer (July-to-mid-September) going back to 2020… the insects are very bad. The huge grasshoppers that feed on just about anything a gardener grows, aphids are on a significant rise every summer due to fewer and fewer ladybugs, beetles and other natural predators, and lastly but not conclusively, more and more weird fungi/bacteria on and in soils, then flies, mosquitos, and all the pesty insects that winter temps or freezes would typically reduce their numbers. They too are on the rise due to our (and the world’s) shorter and shorter winters. The tangible accumulating evidence has become overwhelming with each passing year.

But very sadly and worse still, the superpower and semi-superpower nations such as China, Russia, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, South Asiatic nations, many Eastern European nations, and the United States are still failing to do enough to slow Global Warming and Climate Change caused primarily by fossil fuel burning/consumption, rising CO₂ (carbon dioxide), CH₄ (methane gas), N₂O (nitrous oxide), fluorinated gases, then other less heating atmospheric gases, much less stabilize it by 2030 or 2050 from the point-of-no-return tipping point. I don’t know about where you may live and have lived for many years, but here in Texas where I’ve lived most of my life—the now super hardcore Red state where environmental regulations and Climate Change movements and/or policies are essentially non-existent—it is getting worse while most Texans just go on daily with their busy lives, redundant lives of working, spending-consuming, all in an invisible bubble around family, coworkers, and friends, not paying any attention to how Earth is changing.

Here in Red State Texas we are all just huge, obese bull-headed-frogs relaxing in the pot of gradually boiling water as if nothing is happening or has happened. Meanwhile, our elected officials just keep drawing a salary and pension for doing just enough or less to keep the economy as one of the best in the entire Union; money, money, money! Spend, spend, spend!

What a sad, sad condition we will leave this Earth for our young children, grandchildren, and their children and grandchildren. 😢

Live Well – Love Much – Laugh Often – Learn Always – Do It Better Fast!

The Professor’s Convatorium © 2025 by Professor Taboo is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0